* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/06/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 52 56 62 69 72 68 60 60 59 61 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 52 56 62 69 72 54 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 62 71 78 61 38 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 14 13 8 8 4 5 8 13 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 237 214 231 232 176 95 78 42 90 77 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 167 167 168 168 166 166 166 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 152 149 148 152 152 150 152 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 5 10 6 11 7 11 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 74 72 72 71 73 72 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 12 15 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 -2 0 10 -1 -6 -11 14 25 33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 60 63 54 34 49 42 57 73 50 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 3 6 3 7 0 9 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 134 155 169 174 157 124 48 -43 -167 -210 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.2 20.9 20.8 20.4 19.9 19.3 18.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.1 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.4 95.4 95.7 96.3 97.0 98.0 99.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 57 59 59 58 50 47 32 35 28 51 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 2. -5. -13. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 22. 29. 32. 28. 20. 20. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.8 96.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 13.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 50.0% 38.3% 23.2% 12.7% 31.9% 38.7% 60.0% Logistic: 34.1% 69.9% 59.8% 43.2% 21.1% 54.1% 51.2% 51.2% Bayesian: 11.8% 41.6% 28.7% 6.3% 5.3% 5.2% 2.0% 12.1% Consensus: 21.5% 53.9% 42.3% 24.2% 13.0% 30.4% 30.6% 41.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/06/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 52 56 62 69 72 54 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 50 56 63 66 48 30 24 22 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 49 56 59 41 23 17 15 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 47 50 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT