* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 46 51 53 57 59 59 60 61 63 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 46 51 53 57 59 43 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 43 46 48 52 58 45 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 11 16 15 5 2 5 2 11 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 267 237 221 233 218 258 64 11 52 71 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 167 167 167 167 169 169 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 152 152 151 149 149 150 155 157 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 74 72 72 72 71 71 71 73 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 6 -4 0 1 -14 -17 -10 12 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 51 54 55 48 38 33 36 61 44 43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 2 7 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 106 119 138 160 185 188 145 121 59 -79 -234 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.3 21.0 20.9 20.6 19.9 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.1 95.9 95.6 95.4 95.3 95.6 95.8 96.3 97.4 99.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 4 8 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 53 57 60 61 57 50 47 36 41 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 17. 18. 22. 24. 24. 25. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 96.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 37.3% 21.6% 10.2% 8.8% 15.4% 24.4% 50.3% Logistic: 20.0% 46.2% 34.1% 19.7% 13.2% 43.7% 30.6% 37.5% Bayesian: 4.8% 27.7% 18.1% 4.2% 2.6% 4.8% 1.2% 3.8% Consensus: 11.3% 37.1% 24.6% 11.4% 8.2% 21.3% 18.7% 30.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 44 46 51 53 57 59 43 32 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 40 42 47 49 53 55 39 28 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 42 46 48 32 21 17 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 34 38 40 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT