* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132017 09/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 48 54 55 52 54 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 45 48 54 55 47 34 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 40 43 47 50 34 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 19 14 16 11 5 6 5 10 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -5 0 -3 0 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 269 269 248 228 250 230 39 99 25 66 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 167 167 167 168 168 167 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 153 153 152 151 149 150 154 153 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 5 9 6 12 7 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 75 73 73 71 73 72 73 71 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 7 12 7 10 -4 -7 -23 -4 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 56 51 58 54 26 37 21 46 51 53 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1 5 0 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 99 117 140 167 198 207 177 157 104 -1 -160 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.0 19.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.3 96.0 95.6 95.3 95.2 95.3 95.4 95.8 96.6 97.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 4 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 52 56 61 64 61 54 49 41 42 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -3. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 24. 25. 22. 24. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 96.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 23.7% 15.0% 8.9% 7.4% 13.5% 18.3% 41.7% Logistic: 12.2% 37.6% 26.4% 12.7% 8.6% 29.0% 15.6% 21.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.3% 3.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2.1% Consensus: 7.1% 22.5% 14.9% 7.6% 5.5% 14.4% 11.4% 21.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 45 48 54 55 47 34 29 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 41 44 50 51 43 30 25 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 38 44 45 37 24 19 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 35 36 28 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT