* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132017 09/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 42 46 47 49 48 48 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 42 36 30 28 27 27 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 36 31 28 27 27 27 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 25 22 19 17 8 2 10 13 16 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 273 261 264 267 247 242 236 232 84 84 105 98 99 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 166 167 169 169 169 166 163 159 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 146 147 150 155 154 154 150 152 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 76 75 73 74 74 73 72 67 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -1 0 8 10 0 9 -14 -9 6 13 12 19 200 MB DIV 54 72 65 60 65 54 36 42 11 12 26 38 24 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 97 123 133 133 132 48 -23 -122 -225 -233 -100 93 253 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.0 21.4 20.9 20.5 19.7 18.9 18.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 96.6 96.5 96.5 96.5 97.0 97.6 98.5 99.4 100.7 102.5 104.6 106.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 0 0 2 4 4 5 6 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 52 54 54 52 39 51 34 0 0 55 42 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 16. 17. 19. 18. 18. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 96.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 24.6% 15.1% 8.9% 7.3% 13.0% 16.5% 21.5% Logistic: 11.9% 41.2% 29.8% 14.0% 9.0% 28.5% 19.8% 30.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% Consensus: 7.0% 23.4% 15.7% 7.8% 5.5% 14.1% 12.2% 17.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 THIRTEEN 09/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 41 42 36 30 28 27 27 30 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 38 32 26 24 23 23 26 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 33 27 21 19 18 18 21 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT