* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 24 23 23 24 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 24 23 23 24 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 31 29 27 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 38 31 28 21 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 253 256 260 268 309 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 120 122 122 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 109 111 109 109 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 35 32 28 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -41 -49 -67 -83 -125 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -22 -28 -11 -20 -8 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 16 13 14 11 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2044 2137 2230 2349 2468 2411 2223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.5 25.1 26.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.7 38.6 39.8 40.9 42.0 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 3 6 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.9 36.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 379.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132016 LISA 09/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 24 23 23 24 25 26 18HR AGO 35 34 33 31 29 27 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 27 25 23 23 22 22 23 24 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 21 19 19 18 18 19 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT