* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 27 24 22 24 27 28 30 31 32 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 27 24 22 24 27 28 30 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 25 22 19 19 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 44 42 36 29 20 10 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 -3 0 4 3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 236 241 253 257 268 295 260 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 118 119 121 122 123 125 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 107 108 109 109 110 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 38 34 33 30 28 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 -12 -29 -41 -73 -115 -104 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -19 -12 -16 -22 -13 -11 0 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 17 19 12 12 13 7 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1977 2046 2116 2204 2291 2479 2394 2162 1934 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.0 25.2 27.0 29.2 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.1 36.8 37.5 38.3 39.2 41.0 42.2 42.3 41.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 1 2 7 10 4 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -11. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.1 36.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 56.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 355.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 28 27 24 22 24 27 28 30 31 32 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 29 26 24 26 29 30 32 33 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 25 23 25 28 29 31 32 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 19 21 24 25 27 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT