* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 41 44 43 38 23 15 11 4 4 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -2 -5 -3 3 3 3 0 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 239 241 248 259 261 292 343 4 265 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.9 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 117 118 119 121 123 124 121 115 104 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 106 106 107 108 109 109 107 101 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 38 36 33 32 30 37 42 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 12 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 1 -8 -15 -33 -66 -108 -138 -98 -86 -73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -24 -22 -13 -12 5 -26 4 6 29 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 8 13 17 12 13 9 9 0 -12 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1906 1982 2054 2132 2210 2368 2435 2216 2012 1884 1842 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.9 25.2 27.0 29.1 31.6 34.1 36.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.1 36.9 37.6 38.4 39.9 41.1 41.2 40.2 38.2 35.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 10 10 12 14 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 1 1 2 6 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -20. -23. -22. -19. -16. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.5 35.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.04 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 320.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132016 LISA 09/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 30 27 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT