* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 42 38 36 30 26 23 21 22 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 45 45 42 38 36 30 26 23 21 22 22 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 41 38 33 28 24 23 24 26 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 35 38 43 37 29 16 6 9 8 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 1 -3 1 0 0 0 -4 -3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 244 242 247 243 238 254 255 281 354 57 87 123 209 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 115 116 117 118 119 121 123 121 117 111 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 105 105 105 105 106 107 107 106 101 94 87 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.9 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 47 44 39 37 37 33 37 42 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 16 16 15 14 12 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 29 11 -3 -34 -63 -101 -132 -81 -69 -70 -70 200 MB DIV 28 38 15 -24 -17 -18 -13 -16 -2 1 11 37 25 700-850 TADV 23 22 17 10 10 17 12 8 8 5 -8 9 -19 LAND (KM) 1790 1851 1916 1980 2044 2170 2331 2450 2253 2090 1981 1890 1829 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.1 24.3 25.5 27.0 28.9 30.9 32.9 34.7 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.9 35.5 36.1 36.8 38.0 39.5 40.5 40.8 40.0 38.4 37.2 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 5 2 1 3 7 5 5 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -9. -15. -19. -22. -24. -23. -23. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.3 34.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.29 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 339.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 42 38 36 30 26 23 21 22 22 22 22 18HR AGO 45 44 41 37 35 29 25 22 20 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 35 29 25 22 20 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 27 23 20 18 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT