* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 41 36 32 28 26 24 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 41 36 32 28 26 24 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 44 42 37 32 28 25 24 25 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 33 35 39 44 33 23 15 15 14 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 242 245 244 246 243 248 259 275 327 20 14 17 246 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 116 115 116 118 119 120 122 124 119 113 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 106 105 105 106 105 106 107 109 103 95 88 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.4 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 46 44 39 36 32 30 34 40 44 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 13 11 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 33 24 15 -17 -47 -78 -108 -84 -62 -63 -26 200 MB DIV 38 24 18 6 0 -12 -38 -16 -30 -1 -6 46 33 700-850 TADV 16 21 17 15 12 13 7 9 9 9 0 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1756 1809 1866 1936 2006 2118 2258 2401 2357 2186 2021 1915 1838 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 26.4 27.8 29.7 32.3 34.0 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.4 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.5 38.8 40.1 41.0 40.5 38.7 37.8 37.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 12 12 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 5 1 2 7 5 8 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -18. -19. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 33.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.30 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 330.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 43 41 36 32 28 26 24 23 23 24 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 40 35 31 27 25 23 22 22 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 33 29 25 23 21 20 20 21 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 24 20 18 16 15 15 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT