* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 36 33 30 29 27 26 28 29 29 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 36 33 30 29 27 26 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 25 22 22 23 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 29 34 37 38 43 36 23 12 12 14 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -3 1 -1 -2 8 SHEAR DIR 245 242 244 245 246 243 257 258 297 18 4 338 250 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.5 25.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 117 115 116 118 119 120 123 125 121 109 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 107 105 105 106 106 106 108 111 106 95 88 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -55.3 -54.9 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 46 45 40 34 32 30 32 39 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 10 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 36 36 23 -4 -33 -54 -90 -85 -78 -38 -58 200 MB DIV 58 35 23 19 17 1 -31 -7 -20 -8 25 42 47 700-850 TADV 17 16 19 17 12 11 6 8 5 4 9 6 13 LAND (KM) 1728 1786 1847 1916 1986 2117 2255 2406 2382 2149 1897 1735 1679 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.7 24.9 26.0 27.4 29.6 32.5 35.2 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.1 34.8 35.5 36.2 37.5 38.8 40.2 41.4 41.6 40.8 39.1 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 13 15 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 1 5 2 2 5 6 7 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -19. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 33.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.35 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 37 36 33 30 29 27 26 28 29 29 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 35 32 29 28 26 25 27 28 28 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 30 27 26 24 23 25 26 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 26 23 22 20 19 21 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT