* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 33 30 26 25 22 22 22 24 23 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 33 30 26 25 22 22 22 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 23 21 21 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 29 34 36 38 42 28 17 8 18 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 11 SHEAR DIR 244 243 247 246 245 247 253 254 271 343 25 90 203 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 25.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 117 116 115 116 118 119 122 125 123 113 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 108 106 105 105 105 106 107 111 109 100 90 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 5 2 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 51 48 45 39 36 31 30 31 34 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 16 12 11 9 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 46 26 26 36 33 9 -24 -39 -74 -114 -40 -16 -75 200 MB DIV 82 66 42 33 26 -6 -13 -28 -24 -34 26 0 47 700-850 TADV 15 16 17 19 12 10 7 7 5 5 15 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1646 1700 1758 1826 1895 2013 2141 2292 2456 2243 1961 1772 1700 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.6 23.0 24.4 25.6 26.8 28.8 31.7 34.6 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.3 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.5 37.7 39.1 40.6 41.3 41.1 39.4 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 13 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 1 5 1 3 9 6 4 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -18. -18. -18. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 32.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.36 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 254.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 35 33 30 26 25 22 22 22 24 23 18HR AGO 40 39 37 35 33 30 26 25 22 22 22 24 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 32 29 25 24 21 21 21 23 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 25 21 20 17 17 17 19 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT