* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 29 30 31 29 31 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 29 30 31 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 34 31 29 26 24 23 24 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 28 30 32 39 37 22 7 8 19 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 6 SHEAR DIR 250 241 240 250 249 245 244 250 241 216 64 69 6 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 118 118 117 120 121 122 124 125 121 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 111 109 108 107 108 108 108 110 110 107 95 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 4 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 53 52 47 41 35 31 28 27 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 20 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 67 58 44 35 36 31 9 -21 -44 -85 -124 -7 -18 200 MB DIV 81 84 65 36 29 21 -3 -30 -19 -23 2 14 46 700-850 TADV 12 16 18 18 19 12 9 9 8 3 0 14 -5 LAND (KM) 1621 1691 1754 1822 1892 2050 2198 2344 2514 2338 2089 1850 1678 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 27.5 29.8 32.6 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.0 33.7 34.4 35.2 36.8 38.3 39.7 41.3 42.3 42.6 41.6 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 4 7 7 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -16. -16. -15. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -11. -10. -9. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 32.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.38 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 230.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.5% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.5% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 29 30 31 29 31 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 34 31 27 28 29 30 28 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 32 29 25 26 27 28 26 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 24 20 21 22 23 21 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT