* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 48 43 39 39 33 31 29 27 24 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 48 43 39 39 33 31 29 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 47 46 42 39 36 33 30 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 20 17 21 31 32 35 27 16 10 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 4 2 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 245 242 252 247 247 248 251 252 260 269 350 62 66 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 120 119 117 119 121 122 123 126 124 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 111 110 109 107 108 109 109 110 111 109 101 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 5 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 55 55 52 48 40 35 30 30 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 20 17 15 17 14 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 75 63 49 46 37 29 7 -24 -65 -111 -34 -14 200 MB DIV 57 78 61 74 64 21 -6 16 -30 -33 -19 18 29 700-850 TADV 11 7 12 11 15 11 4 10 5 2 8 8 -6 LAND (KM) 1600 1676 1747 1804 1863 2005 2153 2300 2456 2449 2209 1951 1715 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.4 24.7 26.5 28.5 31.0 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.2 32.9 33.5 34.1 34.8 36.3 37.8 39.3 40.8 42.1 43.0 43.0 42.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 2 2 5 2 2 7 7 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -7. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. -2. -6. -6. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 32.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.73 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.34 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 242.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.7% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 48 48 43 39 39 33 31 29 27 24 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 45 40 36 36 30 28 26 24 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 37 33 33 27 25 23 21 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 30 26 26 20 18 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT