* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 50 49 43 40 38 34 33 30 28 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 49 50 49 43 40 38 34 33 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 48 45 41 39 36 33 32 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 21 19 22 29 32 29 19 9 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 3 4 0 0 -3 2 -1 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 252 246 252 253 245 250 247 259 261 295 30 72 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 122 121 120 118 119 121 122 122 124 126 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 112 110 109 109 109 110 109 108 110 112 106 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 55 56 55 50 44 37 32 30 28 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 17 14 14 14 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 74 82 78 65 54 51 42 20 -19 -47 -90 -120 -41 200 MB DIV 55 47 65 56 67 50 1 2 6 -24 -25 -3 14 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 5 9 9 3 3 5 3 1 6 0 LAND (KM) 1562 1643 1725 1786 1840 1961 2114 2269 2414 2547 2338 2080 1801 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.9 21.3 22.9 24.3 25.7 27.3 29.6 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 32.6 33.3 33.9 34.5 35.8 37.4 39.0 40.4 41.7 42.9 43.4 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 9 11 10 9 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 3 3 6 4 3 8 8 6 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 31.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.35 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 13.2% 6.5% 2.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 10.9% 6.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 49 50 49 43 40 38 34 33 30 28 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 47 46 40 37 35 31 30 27 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 41 35 32 30 26 25 22 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 29 26 24 20 19 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT