* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 47 48 45 42 38 37 38 37 33 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 47 48 45 42 38 37 38 37 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 45 42 39 36 33 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 14 18 21 27 33 35 23 12 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 268 261 259 251 254 246 241 241 248 254 244 93 68 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 122 120 118 118 121 122 121 123 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 115 113 111 108 108 109 109 108 109 114 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 55 54 49 45 39 34 29 29 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 16 14 13 12 12 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 93 84 94 96 87 66 62 40 11 -19 -46 -86 -44 200 MB DIV 65 51 49 55 51 48 27 -16 9 -3 -31 -19 28 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 4 3 7 3 6 0 4 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 1502 1593 1684 1766 1836 1965 2108 2245 2362 2507 2488 2234 1938 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.6 20.7 22.1 23.5 24.8 25.9 28.0 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.7 34.4 35.8 37.3 38.7 39.9 41.3 42.8 43.8 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 3 7 6 3 6 9 10 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -14. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 31.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.74 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.43 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.5% 11.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 16.4% 8.0% 2.7% 0.0% 2.2% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 4.2% 11.9% 6.6% 4.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 47 48 45 42 38 37 38 37 33 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 43 44 41 38 34 33 34 33 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 39 36 33 29 28 29 28 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 28 25 21 20 21 20 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT