* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 52 53 51 48 44 38 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 52 53 51 48 44 38 35 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 51 52 49 46 42 38 35 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 13 13 18 23 28 32 30 22 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 2 4 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 251 269 254 252 247 233 244 235 256 271 309 29 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 126 124 123 119 118 119 121 121 122 126 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 119 117 114 109 108 108 109 108 109 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 59 57 55 54 51 48 42 37 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 99 95 85 93 95 72 69 44 25 -9 -32 -84 -77 200 MB DIV 65 68 49 53 57 60 44 19 4 -6 -13 -27 31 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 2 3 4 6 1 5 0 2 3 5 LAND (KM) 1409 1494 1580 1689 1798 1954 2062 2196 2323 2444 2552 2317 2035 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.0 20.1 21.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 27.5 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.4 32.1 33.1 34.0 35.6 36.8 38.2 39.5 40.7 41.7 42.9 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 3 4 7 9 5 5 10 8 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 8. 4. -2. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.0 30.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.47 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 189.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 30.0% 17.6% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% Logistic: 8.0% 33.2% 19.1% 7.6% 0.0% 6.1% 3.8% Bayesian: 5.1% 4.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% Consensus: 7.2% 22.4% 12.6% 6.6% 0.0% 2.3% 7.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 51 52 53 51 48 44 38 35 33 31 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 47 48 46 43 39 33 30 28 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 40 41 39 36 32 26 23 21 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 30 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT