* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 48 45 42 39 38 37 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 48 45 42 39 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 40 38 35 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 7 7 10 16 25 32 35 26 21 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 0 0 7 1 3 -4 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 13 280 275 281 256 254 238 239 245 243 248 241 205 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 128 125 122 119 119 120 121 122 123 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 127 124 120 117 114 110 108 109 109 109 110 113 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 61 59 55 53 50 49 43 38 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 15 13 12 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 92 87 96 95 76 67 46 26 -8 -42 -84 200 MB DIV 40 59 66 54 56 57 53 47 -5 -11 -27 -11 3 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 5 0 6 4 5 1 3 2 7 LAND (KM) 1342 1418 1497 1592 1688 1891 2055 2163 2247 2361 2460 2499 2249 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.3 25.8 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.7 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.9 36.6 37.8 38.7 39.9 41.3 42.8 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 7 6 4 3 12 6 2 6 9 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 18. 15. 12. 9. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 30.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.73 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.60 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 22.7% 12.2% 10.5% 0.0% 9.8% 19.3% Logistic: 4.3% 26.9% 14.2% 4.6% 0.0% 5.6% 5.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% Consensus: 4.0% 17.6% 9.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.3% 8.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 48 45 42 39 38 37 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 46 45 42 39 36 35 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 40 39 36 33 30 29 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 31 30 27 24 21 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT