* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 53 57 59 58 58 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 53 57 59 58 58 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 50 52 51 49 46 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 1 3 3 4 8 16 28 33 30 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 6 5 2 0 -6 -5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 16 11 74 300 337 264 250 233 243 243 240 228 195 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 133 129 124 122 122 122 124 124 123 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 132 127 122 116 113 112 111 113 112 111 113 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 61 56 53 50 45 35 30 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 18 17 16 15 15 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 108 101 103 110 106 118 105 100 87 70 50 18 -38 200 MB DIV 39 57 82 78 70 66 48 44 20 17 6 -12 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 4 1 3 3 5 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1272 1364 1460 1557 1657 1847 2036 2191 2212 2191 2186 2268 2327 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.6 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.2 31.1 32.0 32.9 34.6 36.3 37.9 39.4 41.0 42.5 43.8 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 9 8 7 10 13 12 4 7 8 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 27. 29. 28. 28. 27. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 29.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 45 53 57 59 58 58 57 57 56 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 50 54 56 55 55 54 54 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 43 47 49 48 48 47 47 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 37 39 38 38 37 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT