* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132016 09/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 45 50 56 61 62 61 58 55 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 45 50 56 61 62 61 58 55 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 52 58 59 58 56 53 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 2 4 7 11 15 21 26 32 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 4 1 1 -5 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 47 39 28 38 194 241 253 261 244 243 238 250 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 137 133 126 123 122 122 124 124 124 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 136 133 127 119 115 114 112 114 113 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 60 59 58 53 51 50 46 39 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 120 122 115 121 127 121 121 109 98 73 42 8 -27 200 MB DIV 35 40 50 50 54 41 36 31 19 15 22 -18 -39 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 0 3 1 3 0 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 1151 1240 1332 1438 1547 1725 1927 2126 2187 2157 2178 2194 2150 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 11 9 7 6 14 13 4 8 6 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 26. 31. 32. 31. 28. 25. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 28.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 30.1% 17.1% 11.6% 9.2% 10.5% 19.9% Logistic: 17.9% 57.3% 36.9% 28.5% 0.0% 20.7% 28.3% Bayesian: 5.1% 24.0% 8.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4.9% 6.0% Consensus: 10.1% 37.1% 20.9% 13.6% 3.1% 12.0% 18.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 THIRTEEN 09/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 39 45 50 56 61 62 61 58 55 51 51 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 44 50 55 56 55 52 49 45 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 43 48 49 48 45 42 38 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 31 36 37 36 33 30 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT