* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 47 52 55 60 64 65 67 69 68 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 47 52 55 60 64 65 67 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 52 57 64 71 77 81 81 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 5 6 5 10 10 10 9 11 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 4 3 2 1 0 1 5 6 8 8 SHEAR DIR 48 84 225 247 254 267 295 305 312 272 265 262 247 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.4 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 129 135 147 159 161 161 157 160 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 133 138 147 163 175 174 172 165 167 164 163 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 66 67 70 71 71 71 64 66 66 66 66 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 50 50 50 49 38 33 23 16 18 9 16 200 MB DIV 6 -9 -15 -44 -31 -15 27 36 55 56 54 49 35 700-850 TADV -5 -2 2 4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 903 1055 1218 1437 1658 1744 1299 971 756 620 604 445 267 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 24.1 25.8 27.5 29.6 31.7 36.2 40.9 44.9 48.4 51.5 54.3 57.1 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 21 21 23 22 18 16 15 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 16 13 11 9 11 18 31 25 27 28 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 17. 20. 25. 29. 30. 33. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.4 24.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 29.5% 21.0% 14.0% 11.7% 14.9% 13.9% 41.0% Logistic: 6.8% 21.4% 15.3% 7.1% 3.8% 18.8% 23.7% 41.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 27.5% 6.8% 0.9% 0.4% 3.3% 1.1% 27.8% Consensus: 5.3% 26.2% 14.3% 7.4% 5.3% 12.3% 12.9% 36.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 12.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/22/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 47 52 55 60 64 65 67 69 68 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 47 50 55 59 60 62 64 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 41 44 49 53 54 56 58 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 35 40 44 45 47 49 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT