* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 45 47 48 47 42 37 31 29 31 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 45 47 48 47 42 37 31 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 40 41 42 46 48 49 46 41 37 35 35 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 17 14 11 31 39 48 47 40 32 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 0 2 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 318 344 346 339 301 209 216 223 225 264 299 299 224 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.6 24.0 22.0 19.7 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 127 127 126 127 128 131 126 105 92 83 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 106 106 104 105 108 118 118 99 84 77 78 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.2 -55.5 -55.2 -54.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -55.3 -56.2 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 4 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 35 33 35 41 45 49 47 43 49 48 48 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 13 12 12 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 32 34 12 27 114 106 116 97 5 -14 15 11 200 MB DIV -30 -31 -10 6 10 25 26 37 44 1 20 0 25 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 0 -3 -3 -6 -19 -25 16 12 -12 -24 LAND (KM) 1550 1576 1631 1701 1751 1860 1943 1985 2075 1485 867 373 201 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 35.0 34.2 33.4 32.9 32.1 31.7 32.8 35.3 37.9 40.0 42.1 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.5 43.0 43.2 43.2 42.5 41.5 38.5 33.5 26.2 19.2 13.5 7.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 5 8 19 29 32 26 24 28 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 7 9 8 7 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -12. -19. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 2. -3. -9. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.7 41.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.3% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 45 47 48 47 42 37 31 29 31 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 45 46 45 40 35 29 27 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 41 42 41 36 31 25 23 25 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 34 33 28 23 17 15 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT