* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 56 56 55 52 47 40 35 33 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 53 56 56 55 52 47 40 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 51 53 57 60 61 61 58 52 47 43 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 15 21 20 22 32 36 51 54 44 38 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 275 291 323 323 322 257 229 224 224 227 244 275 277 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.5 24.4 22.7 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 123 124 124 124 128 129 124 107 96 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 100 101 101 99 101 106 114 113 99 88 77 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.0 -56.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 36 37 36 40 45 50 51 44 42 43 46 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 7 24 30 21 10 32 115 130 131 115 55 34 -31 200 MB DIV -22 -26 -33 -12 16 33 26 16 23 8 4 0 9 700-850 TADV 0 2 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -8 -8 -31 -4 7 -1 LAND (KM) 1554 1579 1589 1577 1576 1596 1664 1749 1836 1936 1667 1020 516 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 35.9 35.5 35.3 35.0 34.6 33.9 33.4 33.9 35.9 37.9 39.0 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.3 40.8 41.3 41.9 42.5 42.9 42.9 42.1 39.4 34.9 28.3 21.0 15.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 2 3 7 17 25 29 27 22 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 5 6 8 9 11 10 6 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -9. -18. -26. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 2. -5. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 40.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.24 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.7% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 53 56 56 55 52 47 40 35 33 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 53 53 52 49 44 37 32 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 48 47 44 39 32 27 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 40 39 36 31 24 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT