* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 07/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 42 48 54 58 63 70 76 81 85 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 42 48 54 58 63 70 76 81 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 48 53 59 65 72 79 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 8 7 10 15 13 7 4 6 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -4 -5 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 93 99 53 17 13 292 325 328 354 28 68 33 357 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.3 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 141 142 141 146 150 155 148 148 143 147 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 117 116 114 115 118 126 120 120 114 121 134 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -55.6 -56.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.0 -55.1 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 5 6 4 7 5 10 8 13 11 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 53 53 50 45 44 44 43 48 48 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 13 15 18 22 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -33 -6 18 16 -3 -15 -54 -55 -70 -35 -5 28 200 MB DIV -3 9 28 28 17 10 7 -12 -10 -4 16 23 59 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 LAND (KM) 484 408 336 266 227 177 141 114 58 66 72 150 141 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.9 32.4 33.0 33.4 34.0 34.1 33.8 33.6 33.1 32.6 32.6 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.8 74.3 74.6 74.7 74.8 75.2 76.2 77.6 78.6 78.9 77.9 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 3 6 5 4 2 6 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 14 21 24 35 38 30 16 15 18 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 28. 33. 40. 46. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 73.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 07/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.3% 14.7% 10.0% 8.0% 11.3% 11.6% 18.3% Logistic: 4.3% 21.4% 13.0% 5.2% 2.9% 7.5% 2.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 13.4% 9.3% 5.1% 3.7% 6.3% 4.8% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 07/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 07/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 42 48 54 58 63 70 76 81 85 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 44 50 54 59 66 72 77 81 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 45 49 54 61 67 72 76 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 36 40 45 52 58 63 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT