* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 07/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 46 50 53 59 64 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 46 50 53 59 64 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 48 54 61 70 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 10 8 6 6 14 13 15 8 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -2 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 60 88 93 61 26 332 311 343 4 31 15 21 26 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 139 140 138 140 142 147 153 154 155 149 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 116 116 113 111 112 119 126 127 128 122 122 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -55.8 -56.2 -55.9 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 6 6 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 56 53 54 48 47 45 49 50 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 9 9 8 8 10 12 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -52 -26 0 22 22 -13 -28 -64 -51 -48 -17 5 200 MB DIV 4 3 12 22 28 20 6 3 -5 5 21 21 4 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 534 446 372 305 249 184 170 171 172 160 187 225 335 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.6 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.7 33.8 33.5 32.9 32.3 31.3 30.4 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.6 74.3 74.7 74.9 75.0 75.1 75.5 76.7 78.0 79.0 79.0 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 5 2 1 4 6 6 6 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 12 19 23 31 33 32 31 37 52 46 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 34. 39. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.2 72.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 07/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 18.6% 15.9% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 21.5% 15.1% 6.1% 2.8% 7.6% 2.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 13.7% 10.4% 5.6% 0.9% 2.6% 4.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 07/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 07/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 41 46 50 53 59 64 72 75 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 38 43 47 50 56 61 69 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 38 42 45 51 56 64 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 29 33 36 42 47 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT