* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 07/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 44 51 52 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 44 51 52 53 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 25 27 30 34 37 41 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 8 11 13 10 10 20 13 16 21 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 0 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 113 114 71 72 76 24 304 286 282 37 63 66 50 SST (C) 27.6 28.2 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.9 28.0 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 139 146 141 140 139 148 135 124 123 126 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 120 124 119 116 114 119 109 102 100 102 106 108 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.1 -55.9 -56.1 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -55.5 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 52 54 52 49 42 44 41 38 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -73 -65 -54 -15 16 3 -15 -6 -33 -25 -32 -32 200 MB DIV -28 -36 -7 0 7 13 22 3 26 -30 6 0 7 700-850 TADV -6 0 0 -4 -4 2 8 8 1 0 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 701 602 505 420 333 219 199 284 406 467 477 511 578 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.0 31.4 31.9 32.5 33.7 34.8 35.2 34.6 33.5 32.9 32.5 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.9 72.9 73.6 74.2 74.5 73.9 72.8 71.6 71.4 71.7 71.6 70.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 4 3 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 13 12 10 15 29 46 18 6 4 6 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 24. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.8 70.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 07/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.3% 3.1% 2.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 07/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 07/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 44 51 52 53 53 52 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 29 36 42 49 50 51 51 50 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 32 38 45 46 47 47 46 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT