* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 44 43 37 32 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 44 43 33 33 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 39 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 19 24 25 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 4 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 212 200 183 191 202 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 20.0 19.0 17.8 16.3 16.0 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 84 82 79 76 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 77 76 74 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.3 -56.1 -55.5 -54.8 -53.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 43 43 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 27 25 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 22 66 80 82 90 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 82 61 38 44 31 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 2 28 -11 -28 54 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1462 1223 1020 738 424 -52 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.1 44.5 45.9 47.5 49.0 52.8 57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.1 24.2 21.3 17.7 14.1 7.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 25 27 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 23 CX,CY: 18/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -1. -2. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -33. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 43.1 27.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 45 44 43 33 33 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 43 33 33 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 29 29 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 24 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT