* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 21 20 21 29 32 38 37 34 29 23 19 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 11 11 12 9 19 33 43 48 45 49 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -5 -6 -8 -5 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 326 320 321 322 320 288 263 248 246 253 266 258 256 SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.0 24.3 23.7 23.0 22.4 22.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 136 128 121 117 109 103 98 94 91 89 90 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 114 107 101 96 90 86 82 80 79 78 79 79 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -54.4 -55.0 -54.6 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 5 3 7 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 70 71 75 76 77 76 72 61 56 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 9 7 10 11 12 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR -85 -46 3 -3 -7 -16 -35 -15 -31 -29 -46 -47 21 200 MB DIV 13 48 48 21 28 69 30 52 28 37 35 70 45 700-850 TADV 7 2 4 1 0 0 4 3 3 19 24 40 36 LAND (KM) -180 -247 -328 -391 -456 -545 -634 -747 -846 -940 -999 -999 -909 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.6 33.2 33.7 34.1 34.7 35.5 36.5 37.5 38.7 39.9 41.4 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.5 91.2 91.7 92.2 93.0 93.7 93.9 93.4 92.1 90.0 87.5 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 9 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 0. -9. -17. -26. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -13. -9. -6. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -9. -1. 2. 8. 7. 4. -1. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.0 89.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.22 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.45 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.3% 1.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT