* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 44 44 46 48 49 49 48 40 34 24 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 10 13 15 10 13 21 33 44 46 49 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -5 -2 0 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 311 333 320 324 336 351 295 260 254 257 274 281 268 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.4 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.4 22.8 21.9 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 139 131 124 116 107 101 96 93 90 86 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 132 116 109 103 96 89 84 81 80 78 75 75 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 9 9 6 7 3 4 0 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 66 66 69 70 75 77 79 73 64 53 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -76 -40 -4 -1 8 -38 -11 -22 0 -48 1 10 200 MB DIV 28 13 36 49 29 40 41 52 41 27 17 51 23 700-850 TADV 20 5 4 7 3 6 1 11 10 23 26 38 27 LAND (KM) -56 -147 -223 -288 -359 -469 -578 -669 -769 -875 -982 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.7 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.1 35.0 35.8 36.7 37.9 39.2 40.6 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 89.6 90.3 90.9 91.5 92.5 93.3 93.9 93.9 93.0 91.1 89.4 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 9 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -12. -20. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -5. -11. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.9 88.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 10.2% 8.5% 7.5% 6.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 30 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 34 34 34 34 35 35 36 37 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 35 35 35 35 36 36 37 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 32 32 33 33 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT