* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 61 63 64 64 63 61 56 54 44 37 V (KT) LAND 55 58 50 41 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 50 41 35 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 17 13 9 10 7 13 16 35 41 44 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 292 272 311 338 328 330 323 287 252 252 258 286 275 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.3 27.2 26.3 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.1 22.2 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 164 157 140 125 115 107 100 96 92 88 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 143 135 119 104 95 89 84 81 79 77 74 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 6 9 6 6 3 4 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 66 69 70 73 72 76 74 66 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 11 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -52 -75 -76 -25 -20 0 -29 -9 -24 -16 -73 -13 200 MB DIV 31 48 16 1 35 20 39 43 42 28 23 40 52 700-850 TADV 9 17 12 0 7 2 8 6 11 13 22 32 47 LAND (KM) 170 72 -24 -112 -211 -359 -479 -569 -685 -803 -928 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.2 33.2 34.1 34.9 35.9 37.0 38.4 40.0 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.0 90.8 92.0 93.0 93.8 94.4 94.1 93.0 91.5 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 7 5 5 6 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 28 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -6. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 1. -1. -11. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.9 87.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.75 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.8% 14.4% 11.6% 9.7% 12.9% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.7% 5.4% 4.7% 3.1% 7.5% 4.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.3% 6.6% 5.4% 4.3% 6.8% 5.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 50 41 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 55 54 46 37 31 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 42 36 30 29 28 28 28 29 30 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 39 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT