* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 65 67 68 66 63 60 56 58 52 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 10 14 18 10 11 9 15 19 32 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -4 -7 -6 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 308 325 298 297 326 331 333 319 281 258 252 255 292 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 28.4 27.2 26.2 25.4 24.6 23.7 22.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 167 167 164 142 125 114 106 100 95 91 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 156 149 147 142 119 104 95 88 84 81 79 76 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 8 9 5 6 3 5 1 4 0 700-500 MB RH 63 67 66 66 64 69 71 76 77 82 75 63 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 5 5 6 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -60 -45 -56 -80 -38 -30 -9 -44 -10 -39 5 21 200 MB DIV -16 -24 25 36 22 32 26 32 29 36 25 11 56 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 12 14 8 4 10 5 13 10 15 20 LAND (KM) 224 193 157 61 -50 -211 -374 -478 -565 -670 -811 -965 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.2 29.0 29.9 30.7 32.1 33.2 34.1 34.8 35.7 37.0 38.5 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.3 87.6 88.6 89.6 91.1 92.3 93.4 94.5 95.0 94.8 93.9 92.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 22 23 14 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 11. 8. 5. 1. 3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.3 85.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 19.5% 15.2% 12.0% 9.8% 13.1% 11.0% 14.5% Logistic: 2.9% 20.5% 12.1% 8.8% 6.7% 13.6% 5.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 13.8% 9.2% 6.9% 5.5% 9.0% 5.5% 7.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 64 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 48 31 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 42 25 19 18 17 17 17 18 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT