* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GORDON AL072018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 58 65 70 72 71 71 66 64 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 52 55 63 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 49 54 59 69 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 13 16 13 15 11 10 11 11 12 12 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -5 -1 -6 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 303 272 282 300 315 300 338 333 323 298 313 263 233 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.2 27.7 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 169 173 171 167 155 132 119 113 108 103 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 155 159 156 147 133 110 99 93 89 86 81 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 10 6 10 5 9 4 9 3 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 65 65 66 68 71 74 79 78 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 9 8 7 8 6 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -22 -24 -51 -55 -53 -79 -28 -18 -19 -20 -5 5 200 MB DIV 17 29 28 -1 -6 23 9 38 0 41 31 59 1 700-850 TADV 4 -5 -2 4 5 13 6 5 7 2 7 17 0 LAND (KM) 15 25 91 188 177 67 -107 -304 -423 -485 -511 -608 -748 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.8 31.3 32.6 33.6 34.1 34.2 35.0 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 82.0 83.3 84.6 86.0 88.5 90.5 92.0 93.1 94.2 95.4 95.9 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 28 28 27 22 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 25. 30. 32. 31. 31. 26. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.1 80.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 GORDON 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.78 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 20.7% 16.0% 11.3% 8.9% 12.6% 12.0% 21.4% Logistic: 7.4% 38.8% 23.9% 13.1% 8.5% 28.2% 32.2% 28.1% Bayesian: 9.5% 14.9% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 2.3% 1.7% 0.4% Consensus: 8.0% 24.8% 14.2% 8.3% 5.8% 14.4% 15.3% 16.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 38.0% 24.0% 26.0% 8.0% 38.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 GORDON 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 GORDON 09/03/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 48 52 55 63 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 51 59 39 28 24 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 43 51 31 20 16 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT