* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072018 09/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 53 55 57 59 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 4 11 14 8 16 8 13 9 14 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 306 325 288 290 307 306 334 355 340 336 334 328 252 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.0 30.1 29.3 27.8 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 173 173 173 171 172 157 133 120 118 113 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 164 165 163 154 151 135 111 98 96 94 88 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 6 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 67 65 68 65 70 71 76 76 77 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 9 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -30 -21 -24 -48 -37 -81 -34 -27 2 -26 -3 -25 200 MB DIV -8 12 31 35 -1 31 1 19 32 22 13 40 20 700-850 TADV 2 1 -4 -2 1 4 12 5 2 10 1 11 5 LAND (KM) 145 50 78 141 235 183 -22 -156 -311 -410 -413 -489 -597 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.3 26.2 27.0 28.4 29.7 31.2 32.6 33.4 33.4 34.0 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.9 82.1 83.6 85.0 87.6 89.9 91.8 93.4 94.4 94.7 95.4 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 16 14 13 11 10 8 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 49 43 37 28 29 24 27 7 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 5. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.1 79.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.24 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.96 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.9% 12.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 24.2% 12.4% 3.7% 2.2% 8.7% 15.3% 31.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 2.2% 13.7% 8.2% 3.9% 0.7% 2.9% 8.1% 10.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 37 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 34 29 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 30 25 22 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT