* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072018 09/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 59 62 62 64 64 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 44 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 37 44 53 45 33 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 2 8 10 8 14 11 12 9 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -7 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 272 300 337 297 285 326 313 346 352 4 344 339 318 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.3 28.0 26.9 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 169 173 173 173 173 172 172 156 135 121 114 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 159 162 163 162 160 154 150 133 113 99 94 91 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 10 7 10 5 10 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 66 66 65 67 67 69 72 74 76 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 6 6 5 5 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -31 -22 -20 -57 -42 -75 -46 -34 -7 -10 -3 200 MB DIV 12 0 7 24 24 -8 22 -4 35 5 31 19 35 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 1 3 8 3 4 5 5 8 11 LAND (KM) 94 113 100 77 141 270 104 -29 -163 -290 -408 -471 -501 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.2 32.4 33.4 33.9 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 79.3 80.6 81.9 83.2 85.8 88.4 90.6 92.4 93.6 94.3 95.0 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 56 49 46 36 31 30 25 15 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 29. 34. 37. 37. 39. 39. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.0 78.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.28 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.94 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 21.8% 17.3% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 39.6% 24.0% 5.9% 3.0% 15.3% 37.6% 43.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 13.8% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% Consensus: 4.1% 25.1% 14.9% 5.9% 1.1% 5.4% 16.8% 14.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072018 SEVEN 09/03/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 44 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 41 50 40 29 25 23 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 35 44 34 23 19 17 17 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT