* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 70 70 63 57 58 58 57 57 58 60 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 70 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 73 72 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 14 14 13 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 359 8 350 10 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 171 171 171 170 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 164 163 160 161 162 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 72 71 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 20 18 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 23 42 47 66 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 32 38 63 40 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 -4 -11 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 169 222 230 144 48 -178 -193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.5 20.4 19.9 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.1 93.2 94.3 95.3 96.3 98.5 100.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 35 48 57 41 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -13. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 15. 8. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 92.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 46.3% 30.5% 23.2% 9.6% 25.0% 19.5% 20.3% Logistic: 17.4% 36.4% 22.6% 10.6% 9.6% 26.4% 16.2% 22.8% Bayesian: 29.8% 57.0% 51.7% 15.4% 4.6% 6.2% 1.7% 1.2% Consensus: 21.3% 46.5% 34.9% 16.4% 7.9% 19.2% 12.5% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 67 70 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 62 34 24 20 19 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 54 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT