* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 67 70 77 82 76 67 68 68 69 70 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 45 37 41 47 40 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 46 37 41 50 54 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 10 8 9 14 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -3 0 -4 2 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 266 282 324 2 359 359 358 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 161 162 166 170 172 172 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 158 153 154 157 160 163 162 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 10 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 66 67 68 71 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 19 18 19 21 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 39 29 16 18 24 35 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 69 55 33 33 42 53 42 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -7 -17 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 244 126 8 -107 -104 141 265 91 -118 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.3 87.4 88.5 89.5 91.8 93.9 96.2 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 73 86 37 84 41 32 47 48 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. -4. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 20. 27. 32. 26. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 85.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 54.4% 44.0% 32.0% 18.2% 40.8% 39.1% 32.2% Logistic: 27.4% 66.7% 53.8% 37.5% 18.9% 44.4% 48.9% 50.0% Bayesian: 12.5% 41.9% 25.6% 12.8% 4.9% 8.8% 9.2% 25.3% Consensus: 20.5% 54.3% 41.2% 27.4% 14.0% 31.3% 32.4% 35.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 61 45 37 41 47 40 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 55 39 31 35 41 34 24 22 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 30 22 26 32 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 32 36 42 35 25 23 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT