* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 52 57 64 72 78 78 69 64 65 67 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 52 44 33 43 49 48 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 45 33 41 51 57 43 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 8 3 6 7 6 14 17 17 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 -3 0 -2 5 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 280 290 255 288 19 17 7 360 21 31 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 165 167 166 164 164 164 160 155 152 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 161 162 161 157 154 153 148 144 141 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 12 10 11 10 8 9 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 68 67 71 72 74 78 78 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 7 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 23 27 32 31 13 30 33 42 36 41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 48 49 69 59 23 40 48 32 31 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -1 -7 -2 -4 -11 -19 -7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 168 184 61 -61 -35 169 258 100 -99 -296 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.8 85.9 87.0 88.1 90.2 92.1 94.1 96.1 98.3 100.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 67 73 78 87 47 32 51 49 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 2. -7. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 32. 38. 38. 29. 24. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 83.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 70.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 10.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 48.6% 33.2% 13.8% 9.3% 27.9% 40.1% 65.5% Logistic: 14.1% 55.3% 37.6% 12.6% 3.3% 36.3% 53.3% 63.3% Bayesian: 4.1% 19.6% 7.3% 1.4% 0.9% 4.9% 11.1% 47.9% Consensus: 9.7% 41.2% 26.0% 9.3% 4.5% 23.0% 34.8% 58.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 52 44 33 43 49 48 34 29 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 47 39 28 38 44 43 29 24 22 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 33 22 32 38 37 23 18 16 16 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT