* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 37 35 33 32 30 30 26 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 29 28 27 28 29 30 35 35 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 19 26 61 99 105 101 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 3 -6 -14 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 284 285 280 283 283 275 266 247 248 240 243 239 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.1 25.5 24.9 23.2 17.2 18.9 15.0 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 128 123 114 110 107 97 77 81 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 111 106 103 96 93 93 87 73 76 71 70 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -52.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 4 7 4 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 56 56 56 57 57 55 55 47 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 23 22 18 14 12 10 10 13 16 19 25 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 18 7 8 -35 -44 -8 53 84 72 35 10 200 MB DIV 1 9 18 4 -5 2 11 14 30 34 57 27 32 700-850 TADV -1 9 16 18 18 9 16 -3 14 -30 -123 -104 -77 LAND (KM) -58 -113 -162 -248 -329 -517 -579 -353 -140 68 83 44 575 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.6 35.2 37.1 39.1 40.7 42.0 43.5 45.3 47.4 49.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 80.3 80.9 81.5 82.1 82.9 82.1 78.8 73.4 66.8 59.5 52.3 45.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 9 9 12 18 23 27 27 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 15 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -6. -22. -42. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -20. -17. -14. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -14. -23. -36. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.6 79.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 11.4% 9.9% 8.4% 6.9% 9.0% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.3% 3.6% 3.1% 2.4% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 31 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 35 33 32 31 32 33 34 34 27 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 33 34 35 35 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 29 30 31 31 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT