* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 40 38 35 33 30 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 31 29 27 28 29 29 30 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 30 29 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 9 9 9 12 16 13 17 42 66 88 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 5 2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 13 SHEAR DIR 274 297 296 292 302 277 278 267 268 232 230 231 225 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 26.5 25.6 25.3 25.0 20.9 18.4 17.6 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 133 129 119 110 109 109 87 80 78 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 112 109 107 100 92 93 96 80 75 73 69 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -50.8 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 9 8 6 4 7 3 7 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 56 56 55 57 56 56 55 55 47 38 44 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 26 23 21 16 14 11 9 11 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 23 15 7 -5 -33 -30 15 59 134 163 147 200 MB DIV 13 -4 6 18 1 -7 8 24 0 44 25 8 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 18 15 14 6 12 9 -41 -199 -283 -239 LAND (KM) -34 -78 -110 -167 -224 -431 -627 -549 -293 -38 21 136 173 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.6 33.6 34.0 34.3 36.0 38.0 39.7 41.2 42.7 44.3 46.0 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.1 80.6 81.1 81.6 82.8 83.5 81.7 77.4 71.3 64.1 57.1 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 8 10 10 14 21 25 27 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. -9. -24. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -12. -16. -21. -26. -25. -25. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -25. -38. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.6 79.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.0% 12.1% 10.4% 8.8% 11.1% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.3% 4.4% 3.8% 3.0% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 33 31 29 27 28 29 29 30 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 39 37 35 33 34 35 35 36 34 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 35 36 37 37 38 36 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 32 33 33 34 32 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT