* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 50 50 49 44 41 38 35 34 32 35 V (KT) LAND 55 46 39 34 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 32 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 46 39 34 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 19 16 15 13 13 14 12 16 27 38 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 0 -5 0 3 -2 1 -3 -2 -3 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 250 269 284 290 284 292 267 263 272 284 242 233 227 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.1 23.1 17.1 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 138 135 125 117 112 110 108 96 76 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 115 112 110 104 96 93 93 94 86 71 77 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 9 8 4 7 3 7 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 59 58 55 53 55 53 56 59 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 25 25 22 17 15 12 11 12 15 22 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 12 8 13 15 -3 -23 -42 2 61 161 206 200 MB DIV -1 -2 1 10 12 10 4 -1 29 -3 61 52 81 700-850 TADV 3 7 -1 0 7 12 13 7 8 4 -8 -56 -56 LAND (KM) -15 -28 -61 -111 -158 -286 -452 -564 -545 -325 -133 125 67 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.8 36.1 37.6 39.2 40.7 42.1 43.4 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.2 79.7 80.2 80.8 81.9 83.0 83.0 81.7 78.4 73.2 67.5 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 12 17 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 30 17 12 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -27. -25. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.9 78.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.34 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.65 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.4% 10.0% 9.3% 8.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.2% 3.6% 3.4% 2.8% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 46 39 34 31 28 27 27 28 29 30 32 35 18HR AGO 55 54 47 42 39 36 35 35 36 37 38 40 43 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 43 40 39 39 40 41 42 44 47 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 39 38 38 39 40 41 43 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT