* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 61 59 57 52 46 41 36 30 27 26 V (KT) LAND 65 54 45 38 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 65 54 45 38 33 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 17 14 15 13 13 11 17 21 43 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 0 -2 1 1 0 -1 -4 -1 3 3 12 SHEAR DIR 252 257 263 274 274 281 272 270 282 287 278 253 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.7 26.8 26.1 25.6 24.8 24.0 19.4 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 144 142 140 131 121 114 110 105 101 81 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 115 114 113 107 100 95 92 91 88 74 69 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 6 5 9 5 8 4 8 4 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 61 59 57 55 55 55 56 59 53 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 28 28 26 24 20 16 13 11 9 11 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 1 5 9 8 9 -30 -40 -46 33 105 158 200 MB DIV 9 0 -4 10 11 9 10 -5 15 23 22 41 68 700-850 TADV 0 2 7 0 3 17 28 7 12 -7 7 -3 1 LAND (KM) -13 -20 -29 -60 -93 -200 -364 -502 -602 -451 -236 -75 -1 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.0 33.9 33.9 33.8 34.2 35.4 36.9 38.6 40.4 42.1 43.7 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.8 79.2 79.6 80.1 81.3 82.4 82.9 82.5 80.3 76.0 71.2 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 15 19 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 17 12 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -31. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -35. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.0 78.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.5% 11.4% 10.7% 9.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 54 45 38 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 29 18HR AGO 65 64 55 48 44 39 37 37 38 39 40 40 39 12HR AGO 65 62 61 54 50 45 43 43 44 45 46 46 45 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 46 44 44 45 46 47 47 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT