* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 70 69 66 59 49 44 38 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 75 63 52 44 38 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 75 63 52 43 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 17 16 13 13 14 16 15 20 35 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 0 -2 3 1 2 -3 -2 -1 7 9 SHEAR DIR 257 265 259 272 279 275 292 277 273 279 291 254 257 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.3 26.6 25.8 25.3 24.4 22.5 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 144 144 142 137 126 119 112 109 103 92 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 116 115 114 111 105 99 94 93 89 81 71 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.6 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 6 5 8 4 7 3 7 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 58 60 60 60 59 58 53 61 58 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 31 28 28 27 22 17 15 12 11 13 19 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -7 1 3 6 14 9 -4 -32 -57 -7 62 150 200 MB DIV 27 17 -1 -12 6 13 5 0 -1 25 3 37 21 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 6 2 13 20 18 13 15 2 5 -9 LAND (KM) -1 -16 -25 -29 -54 -131 -248 -424 -580 -572 -401 -260 -30 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.1 34.0 33.9 33.8 33.9 34.4 35.7 37.5 39.5 41.4 42.9 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.3 78.8 79.2 79.6 80.5 81.9 83.0 83.4 82.0 78.8 74.6 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 8 10 13 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 16 17 14 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. -24. -29. -33. -31. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -16. -26. -31. -37. -43. -44. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.1 77.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.50 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.5% 11.5% 10.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 63 52 44 38 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 75 74 63 55 49 41 39 38 38 39 40 41 41 12HR AGO 75 72 71 63 57 49 47 46 46 47 48 49 49 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 51 49 48 48 49 50 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT