* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 79 76 73 67 57 48 41 35 30 31 V (KT) LAND 80 79 61 52 44 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 61 51 44 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 8 13 12 15 15 15 16 20 22 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 3 7 1 2 3 1 0 -2 -3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 268 257 262 244 265 285 276 281 264 269 277 268 256 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.6 24.7 23.3 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 145 144 143 135 125 115 111 106 98 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 115 116 115 115 110 104 97 94 92 88 72 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 7 9 6 8 4 8 4 5 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 59 60 60 59 60 57 54 55 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 32 31 29 28 26 20 16 13 11 11 16 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -8 0 -1 3 14 13 20 -16 -20 -29 38 181 200 MB DIV 15 26 19 0 -12 15 22 7 11 10 25 47 63 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 0 6 4 28 28 13 9 -8 22 12 LAND (KM) 46 9 -20 -15 -10 -64 -157 -296 -509 -630 -491 -300 -68 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.0 33.8 33.7 33.9 34.7 36.3 38.3 40.6 42.9 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 77.8 78.3 78.6 79.0 79.8 81.0 82.3 83.6 83.1 80.7 75.9 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 3 3 4 6 8 9 12 18 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 30 32 33 13 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -16. -24. -28. -32. -34. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -4. -7. -13. -23. -32. -39. -45. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.1 77.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.07 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.1% 14.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 3.9% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.3% 5.8% 5.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 61 52 44 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 80 79 61 52 44 34 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 12HR AGO 80 77 76 67 59 49 44 42 42 43 44 45 45 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 62 52 47 45 45 46 47 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT