* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 89 89 86 80 73 66 53 42 35 30 30 V (KT) LAND 90 89 89 75 62 42 32 28 27 27 27 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 86 73 60 41 31 28 27 27 27 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 14 12 18 15 18 12 14 16 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 7 -1 3 0 2 0 1 -2 -1 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 206 234 232 233 239 258 242 262 258 265 275 285 269 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 145 144 144 142 138 131 122 117 111 108 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 117 116 115 114 111 107 101 97 93 92 91 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 7 6 9 6 9 5 7 4 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 60 60 61 59 55 57 59 62 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 34 35 33 31 29 27 19 14 12 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -11 -13 -7 6 4 19 15 18 -31 -25 -12 59 200 MB DIV 46 40 16 28 15 9 26 15 3 5 29 -4 41 700-850 TADV 12 4 3 2 0 5 9 21 23 7 11 -7 20 LAND (KM) 141 95 25 -9 -33 -52 -113 -200 -312 -453 -593 -481 -308 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.9 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.0 34.2 34.7 36.0 38.0 39.7 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.7 77.4 77.9 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.3 82.6 83.1 82.9 80.9 77.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 8 10 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 27 22 29 16 12 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -21. -26. -31. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -22. -30. -35. -37. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -4. -10. -17. -24. -37. -48. -55. -60. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.6 76.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.37 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 15.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 3.8% 3.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.3% 5.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 0( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 89 75 62 42 32 28 27 27 27 29 29 18HR AGO 90 89 89 75 62 42 32 28 27 27 27 29 29 12HR AGO 90 87 86 72 59 39 29 25 24 24 24 26 26 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 67 47 37 33 32 32 32 34 34 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 51 41 37 36 36 36 38 38 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 62 52 48 47 47 47 49 49 IN 12HR 90 89 89 80 74 70 60 56 55 55 55 57 57