* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 96 96 91 82 75 63 51 44 38 38 V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 96 96 57 40 31 28 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 93 92 89 55 39 31 28 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 9 13 14 17 14 11 15 13 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 3 2 -2 1 -2 2 2 3 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 176 209 230 240 239 234 272 263 295 273 275 276 268 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 147 144 144 144 144 138 129 123 116 114 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 120 116 116 115 116 112 106 101 97 97 92 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 6 9 6 8 5 7 4 8 4 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 56 58 58 58 57 57 57 59 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 35 35 33 29 27 21 15 13 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -29 -14 -16 -12 7 8 23 23 12 -14 -22 23 200 MB DIV 48 50 43 20 22 -3 14 28 -6 2 4 19 2 700-850 TADV 9 10 5 6 3 0 1 11 12 15 12 16 3 LAND (KM) 229 155 95 50 5 -32 -43 -117 -191 -324 -474 -554 -378 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.5 33.9 34.1 34.2 34.1 33.9 33.8 33.9 34.7 36.1 38.1 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 75.9 76.7 77.2 77.7 78.7 79.4 80.4 81.7 82.8 83.3 82.1 79.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 34 48 27 22 26 16 15 7 7 7 7 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -22. -28. -34. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -10. -18. -27. -31. -34. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 1. 1. -4. -13. -20. -32. -44. -51. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 33.1 75.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 668.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 9.1% 7.0% 4.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 8.3% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 19( 46) 0( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 97 96 96 57 40 31 28 27 27 27 29 18HR AGO 95 94 96 95 95 56 39 30 27 26 26 26 28 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 90 51 34 25 22 21 21 21 23 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 46 29 20 17 16 16 16 18 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 62 45 36 33 32 32 32 34 IN 12HR 95 95 97 88 82 78 61 52 49 48 48 48 50