* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 94 94 93 90 82 76 70 60 52 48 46 V (KT) LAND 95 93 94 94 93 63 44 34 29 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 90 90 88 61 42 33 29 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 14 12 10 15 13 15 10 13 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 1 0 1 -2 3 0 4 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 182 189 193 219 232 230 262 262 274 276 279 267 262 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 147 145 143 144 143 137 128 122 116 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 126 121 118 114 115 116 112 106 101 98 93 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 7 9 7 9 6 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 50 53 54 56 58 59 59 58 58 61 59 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 36 35 34 30 28 25 19 15 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -20 -23 -13 -16 3 -3 20 21 34 2 -1 1 200 MB DIV 8 37 56 42 11 14 0 29 7 18 -10 23 0 700-850 TADV -2 8 9 1 5 -2 6 2 21 20 13 16 -1 LAND (KM) 327 236 148 98 32 -41 -25 -61 -110 -214 -349 -508 -641 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.1 33.6 33.9 34.2 34.3 34.0 33.8 33.4 33.7 34.6 36.4 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 75.0 75.8 76.5 77.3 78.3 78.8 79.7 81.0 82.3 83.3 83.5 82.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 7 7 6 3 3 5 5 6 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 50 33 23 16 16 12 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -14. -22. -29. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -19. -25. -35. -43. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.5 74.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 710.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.19 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.2% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.4% 3.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 16( 30) 14( 40) 0( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 94 94 93 63 44 34 29 28 27 27 28 18HR AGO 95 94 95 95 94 64 45 35 30 29 28 28 29 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 90 60 41 31 26 25 24 24 25 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 54 35 25 20 19 18 18 19 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 46 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 59 40 30 25 24 23 23 24 IN 12HR 95 93 94 85 79 75 56 46 41 40 39 39 40