* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 99 99 99 95 88 77 70 63 54 49 43 V (KT) LAND 100 98 99 99 99 83 56 40 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 96 97 95 90 55 39 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 13 13 10 11 20 18 19 15 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -5 1 -3 3 -4 0 -2 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 184 177 203 203 229 237 250 289 285 303 278 284 278 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 151 147 144 144 144 143 134 122 117 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 130 124 119 115 114 115 115 110 101 95 93 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.6 -49.5 -50.0 -50.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 10 11 10 7 9 6 8 5 7 4 8 700-500 MB RH 49 50 55 53 56 59 59 61 59 57 53 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 37 36 33 27 25 20 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 -13 -21 -8 -8 3 -2 13 18 7 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 24 3 47 54 38 16 1 3 17 5 21 -15 -2 700-850 TADV -10 0 13 10 3 2 3 1 6 7 22 12 9 LAND (KM) 478 343 209 140 80 -3 -33 -31 -69 -172 -318 -425 -508 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.4 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.3 34.2 34.0 33.8 34.0 34.7 35.4 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.3 75.3 76.0 76.8 77.7 78.4 79.0 79.8 81.1 82.7 83.5 83.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 7 6 3 3 3 5 6 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 38 37 47 28 26 16 16 11 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -11. -15. -22. -29. -33. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. -1. -5. -12. -23. -30. -37. -46. -51. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.5 73.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 767.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 21( 51) 0( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 99 99 99 83 56 40 32 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 100 99 100 100 100 84 57 41 33 29 28 28 28 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 96 80 53 37 29 25 24 24 24 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 74 47 31 23 19 18 18 18 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 65 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 65 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 99 90 84 80 53 37 29 25 24 24 24