* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 110 112 105 98 87 81 73 66 55 48 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 110 112 105 98 87 81 53 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 109 110 109 102 92 84 78 53 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 12 12 8 13 13 20 20 24 18 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 -9 -2 2 0 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 189 190 177 193 230 242 264 274 278 286 290 298 297 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 152 146 143 145 145 145 133 124 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 132 130 126 117 114 115 116 118 109 102 97 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -49.8 -49.7 -49.5 -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 8 10 7 8 5 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 51 54 57 57 58 56 53 54 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 34 38 35 34 30 30 27 24 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -16 -11 -19 -22 -17 -8 -8 23 17 30 -13 -5 200 MB DIV 37 5 -10 26 48 24 20 -2 16 2 13 -6 15 700-850 TADV 3 -6 -1 9 9 2 0 7 8 6 17 28 23 LAND (KM) 652 509 368 271 179 75 20 4 13 -48 -167 -278 -393 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.3 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.0 33.9 33.7 33.7 33.9 34.5 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 73.0 74.2 75.0 75.8 77.0 77.7 78.2 78.6 79.6 81.2 82.3 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 9 7 4 2 2 3 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 39 33 47 26 22 26 26 16 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -23. -31. -37. -43. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -2. -6. -7. -13. -18. -27. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. -5. -12. -23. -29. -37. -44. -55. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 30.4 71.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 913.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 30( 65) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 110 110 112 105 98 87 81 53 36 30 28 18HR AGO 110 109 109 109 111 104 97 86 80 52 35 29 27 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 108 101 94 83 77 49 32 26 24 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 102 95 88 77 71 43 26 20 18 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 84 77 66 60 32 15 DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 87 80 69 63 35 18 DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 110 110 101 95 91 84 73 67 39 22 16 DIS