* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 117 118 118 118 109 101 91 85 76 67 58 V (KT) LAND 115 115 117 118 118 118 109 101 91 85 48 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 115 116 112 101 92 85 78 46 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 8 10 10 10 16 22 26 23 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 -2 -7 5 -1 3 -1 -3 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 175 180 195 182 180 221 242 266 273 273 281 274 265 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 153 154 155 148 145 144 144 146 141 128 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 133 132 130 121 116 113 114 118 115 106 101 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.0 -49.5 -49.1 -49.2 -49.3 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 10 10 7 9 6 8 4 8 5 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 52 53 55 58 58 59 57 55 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 34 35 39 37 36 35 34 30 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -3 -7 -9 -17 -11 -5 9 12 20 32 30 30 200 MB DIV 19 25 11 0 45 44 32 7 17 11 10 12 -18 700-850 TADV 5 4 -1 5 7 0 2 2 7 18 13 18 6 LAND (KM) 811 657 505 382 262 125 34 7 25 14 -110 -211 -335 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.3 31.2 32.0 32.7 33.6 33.9 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.7 34.0 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 72.0 73.2 74.2 75.2 76.6 77.6 78.1 78.2 78.9 80.4 81.9 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 9 6 3 1 2 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 24 30 40 32 36 21 25 23 26 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -14. -24. -33. -41. -47. -51. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -10. -18. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. -6. -14. -24. -30. -39. -48. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 29.4 70.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 906.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.1% 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 32( 68) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 3( 15) 1( 15) 1( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 117 118 118 118 109 101 91 85 48 34 29 18HR AGO 115 114 116 117 117 117 108 100 90 84 47 33 28 12HR AGO 115 112 111 112 112 112 103 95 85 79 42 28 23 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 105 96 88 78 72 35 21 16 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 87 79 69 63 26 DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 94 85 77 67 61 24 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 117 108 102 98 89 81 71 65 28 DIS DIS