* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 118 120 121 121 112 103 95 87 80 74 64 V (KT) LAND 115 116 118 120 121 121 112 89 58 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 116 117 117 117 116 105 83 55 38 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 5 7 9 12 15 24 22 25 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -1 -1 -2 5 3 -1 -3 -8 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 150 169 160 181 181 199 240 253 281 266 274 271 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 153 156 150 146 144 143 142 137 126 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 136 134 134 124 117 114 114 114 111 104 99 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.3 -49.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 8 10 6 8 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 52 55 57 58 58 56 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 35 34 38 36 36 35 33 31 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 -3 -9 -15 -20 -19 -3 2 27 24 51 16 200 MB DIV 0 12 25 10 6 55 18 35 1 23 8 0 -3 700-850 TADV 2 6 1 0 3 3 2 1 7 8 13 4 15 LAND (KM) 955 793 633 489 348 167 55 -8 -37 -62 -132 -248 -396 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.5 30.4 31.3 32.1 33.3 33.9 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.5 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.8 72.2 73.4 74.6 76.3 77.3 78.0 78.5 79.3 80.3 81.7 83.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 7 4 3 2 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 46 29 33 39 50 24 27 16 10 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -23. -32. -40. -46. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. -3. -12. -20. -28. -35. -41. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 28.6 69.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 894.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 34( 69) 34( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 2( 16) 4( 19) 1( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 118 120 121 121 112 89 58 40 31 28 27 18HR AGO 115 114 116 118 119 119 110 87 56 38 29 26 25 12HR AGO 115 112 111 113 114 114 105 82 51 33 24 21 20 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 106 106 97 74 43 25 16 DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 87 64 33 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 98 89 66 35 17 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 116 118 109 103 99 90 67 36 18 DIS DIS DIS