* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 128 131 133 130 126 114 104 96 91 89 85 V (KT) LAND 120 124 128 131 133 130 126 99 61 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 127 129 127 125 113 99 56 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 6 5 6 11 15 14 24 26 26 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 3 1 3 -3 -6 -8 -9 SHEAR DIR 73 166 178 180 220 197 233 251 272 276 263 272 257 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 153 153 155 147 143 141 139 133 124 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 141 137 134 130 120 114 111 111 107 102 98 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -49.9 -49.4 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0 -49.2 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 10 10 7 9 5 8 3 7 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 49 50 56 58 61 60 58 50 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 33 34 36 35 39 36 35 36 36 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 16 1 -9 -7 -11 -4 8 21 41 51 53 200 MB DIV -14 -3 5 27 7 33 30 35 15 12 11 11 4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 3 5 0 5 2 2 4 -2 1 2 9 LAND (KM) 944 949 788 628 470 230 81 -4 -47 -102 -180 -268 -430 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.8 29.6 30.5 31.4 32.9 33.9 34.4 34.7 34.9 35.3 35.6 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 69.3 70.8 72.1 73.5 75.5 76.9 77.6 77.9 78.5 79.4 80.8 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 13 9 6 3 2 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 41 45 29 36 39 29 27 14 9 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -24. -35. -44. -51. -56. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 4. 3. 4. 3. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 10. 6. -6. -16. -24. -29. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 28.0 67.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 934.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 6.8% 4.2% 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 2.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.4% 6.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 4.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 43( 62) 46( 79) 43( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 11( 23) 6( 28) 1( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 128 131 133 130 126 99 61 40 31 28 27 18HR AGO 120 119 123 126 128 125 121 94 56 35 26 23 22 12HR AGO 120 117 116 119 121 118 114 87 49 28 19 16 15 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 112 109 105 78 40 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 98 94 67 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 103 99 72 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 124 128 119 113 109 105 78 40 19 DIS DIS DIS